Chance of Senate control
Democrats win control
–
Republicans keep control
–
Independents hold the balance
–
Historical poll-error offset
25%
Who's favored in each race
Hover a state for the forecast; click for the full breakdown.
Seats won by Democrats and independents
All 35 races
| State | Matchup | Chance of winning | Proj. margin | Polls | Markets | Rating |
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Latest polls
| Added | Race | Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Adjusted margin |
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Forecast over time
Pollster accuracy
Pollsters are graded on how close their polls in the last three weeks before past elections (1998–2024) came to the actual results. Error vs field compares each poll with other polls of the same race, so no pollster is penalized for a race every poll missed. Negative is better. Lean shows which party a pollster tends to favor relative to other polls; the forecast subtracts it. Weight is how much one of its polls counts compared with an average pollster. Pollsters with fewer than 10 graded polls show “–” instead of a grade.
| Pollster | Grade | Polls rated | Avg. error | Error vs field | Historical lean | 2026 lean | 2026 polls | Weight |
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